The Annual Oscar Post

Most red-blooded American males spend this time of year geeking out about the Super Bowl.

I don't give a fuck about the Super Bowl.

Instead, I the shameless movie geek redirect that energy to a markedly different sort of Sunday night programming: the Academy Awards. I admit that they're utterly trivial (while, clearly, a bunch of guys in tight pants tackling the shit out of each other over a piece of inflatable pigskin isn't), but I think they're fun. They recognize excellence in something I care deeply about, and that's all that matters to me. And even though there are about 9,000 other awards shows, as far as film goes, the Oscars are still singlehandedly the most prestigious. So that's exciting, right? Right.

So every year after nominees are announced, I do this here Oscar write-up. Well, the nominees were announced yesterday morning, so here we are. It's a pretty straightforward breakdown: I list the nominees, give my personal preference (Should Win), my prediction of the actual winner (Will Win -- and sometimes these even correspond to each other, oooh aaah), and then write a few short comments. It couldn't be simpler. Unless of course I just didn't do it, which would be much more practical.

Let's check it out.

Best Picture:
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Comments: All in all, a very strong lineup. Of these, The Reader is the only one I haven't seen (and I don't have much desire to), while the other four all very handily made my Top 10 List. They're all deserving in their own right. However, Slumdog Millionaire is the little engine that could. It's a juggernaut and it has near-universal support behind it (and, for what it's worth, it's also my personal favorite). If there's an upset, it'll be Benjamin Button (my second favorite, incidentally), but I don't see that happening.

Best Director:
The Nominees: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Should Win: David Fincher
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Comments: Again, it's a race between my two favorite films and, frankly, of those nominated, my two favorite directors (funny how that works out). The Academy has an irritating habit of rewarding the film itself over how well directed it is, which is why I predict Boyle's going to win, but it's not like he's undeserving: Slumdog IS a very stylish and expertly made film. However, Fincher's work on Benjamin Button is just better. It was just about the prettiest and best-directed film of 2008. Also, I'm a bit biased, just because I think Fincher's one of the best out there. And that is a bit of a monkeywrench: the Academy does tend to reward based on past achievements. So it's a race not just between Button and Slumdog, but also between Se7en/Fight Club and Trainspotting/28 Days Later. We'll see.

Best Actor:
The Nominees: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Should Win: Frank Langella
Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Comments: It's Rourke. Anyone wanna argue the point? It's a shame, too, because I honestly think Langella, Penn, and Pitt were all much better in their respective roles. Yeah, sure, Rourke was good, but it wasn't Oscar-caliber. They're just hopeless romantics looking for an underdog. They've found him. So tough luck, Mr. Langella. If it were me, your brilliant work as Richard Nixon would not go unrewarded. As it stands, well, to paraphrase Bogart: you'll always have Watergate.

Best Supporting Actor:
The Nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger
Comments: Every year there's at least one sure thing. This is it. Ain't no way Ledger's losing. I'd bet every cent I own. (But some serious lulz @ Downey actually getting nominated for Tropic Thunder. Rock on, dude. Rock. On.)

Best Actress:
The Nominees: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Comments: The biggest shocker here is that Winslet was nominated for The Reader and not Revolutionary Road. Regardless of which film, though, I still think her chances of winning are pretty damn good. She's been nominated six times now (which, for a 33-year-old, is beyond amazing), and it's just "her time" to win. If I were to choose, I'd go for Anne Hathaway's mindblowing work in Rachel Getting Married (my second-favorite performance of last year, after Mr. Ledger), but she's just a minor player. Being nominated is her reward; that's all she's gonna get.

Best Supporting Actress:
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Doubt), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
Will Win: Penelope Cruz
Comments: Although Kate Winslet cleaned up both lead and supporting categories at the Golden Globes, she was left out here, which levels the playing field again. So I'm back to my original prediction that Penelope Cruz is going to get her due for her standout work in That New Woody Allen Film. She should, too: she's dynamite in that part. If there's a dark horse waiting in the wings, it's Viola Davis. At this point, the buzz is such that it could go either way. But for right now I'll place my bets on Cruz. I may regret it later, but there we go.


... and of course there are a bazillion other categories, for which I could waste a hell of a lot more time writing about, but these are the big ones. We'll see how accurate my predictions are. At this point, I'm fairly confident about all of these, but the buzz over the course of the next month could prove me wrong. Still, Ledger and Rourke are in the bag, hands-down, and Winslet's not looking too bad, either.

Also: are you people really that surprised that The Dark Knight didn't get nominated for more of the big awards? Really? C'mon. Despite how good the film actually is, it's still a "superhero movie." Film snobs, unless they're unapologetic geeks like myself, don't go for that sort of thing. They get their rocks off watching Kate Winslet play a Nazi pedophile. There's been a lot of talk about how both the film itself and Mr. Nolan's direction have gotten snubbed, but frankly I'm not surprised at all. I would've been more surprised if they had gotten the nod. The film will get its due by means of Heath Ledger and some of the technical awards, but that's about it. So it goes. We all know how great the film is, though, so with that out of the way we can just sit back and watch the evening unfold as it will.

30 days! Or ... however long. I don't pay much attention to these things. I just know I'll be watching when it does happen.